Arkansas and East Carolina duke it out in Liberty Bowl
NCAA Football Betting Lines
01/02/2010 - Memphis, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The East Carolina Pirates will take part in their second consecutive Liberty Bowl when they take on the Arkansas Razorbacks for the first-time ever on the football field this Saturday evening at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis.
The Razorbacks have a long history of participating in bowl games, but unfortunately winning those matchups have been tough for this school. This will be the 37th bowl game for Arkansas, but the team is just 11-22-3 in the postseason, and has lost 12 of its last 14 bowl games, including a 38-7 setback to Missouri in the 2008 Cotton Bowl. This year the Razorbacks opened the season with a 48-10 win over Missouri State, but after that victory the team dropped four of its next six contests. However, after a 30-17 loss to Ole Miss, the Razorbacks rebounded with four consecutive wins, including a 42-21 victory over Mississippi State. Unfortunately the team could not close out its regular season on a high note, as Arkansas fell to LSU, 33-30 in overtime.
As for the Pirates, they could not find their stride out of the gate in 2009, splitting their first six games down the middle. However, after a 28-21 loss to SMU, the Pirates really took off, winning six of their last seven contest, including a thrilling, 38-32 decision over Houston in the Conference-USA title game. East Carolina's bowl history is not as dated as Arkansas', but the Pirates have postseason experience, with a 5-5 mark in their previous 10 bowl games. However, the team has lost three of its last four and that includes a 25-19 setback to Kentucky in last season's Liberty Bowl.
The Razorbacks might not have been one of the top teams in the SEC, but they definitely possessed one of the most dangerous offensive units in the entire nation, as the team produced 37.3 ppg. The ground game is churning out 136 yards per matchup, but the team does not have a main source of production out of the backfield. Michael Smith led the way on the year with 396 yards, while Broderick Green added 392 yards and 11 touchdowns on 4.2 yards per carry. What really made this offense go was the passing attack, which was led by one of the top quarterbacks in the country, Ryan Mallett. Mallett completed 57.2 percent of his throws this season for 3,422 yards, with 29 touchdowns against just seven interceptions. Mallett was outstanding with spreading the ball around this season and used every outlet at his disposal. Greg Childs proved to be extremely valuable, as the wide out hauled in 45 receptions for 862 yards and seven touchdowns. Jarius Wright collected 37 passes for 591 yards and four scores, while Joe Adams also caught seven touchdowns.
The reason why the Razorbacks were unable to keep up with the top teams in their conference was because the defense was simply not good enough. The defense allowed 25.8 ppg throughout the regular season and was unable to stop opponents on the ground or through the air. Arkansas was gashed for 150.1 rushing ypg, and even worse was their performance against the pass, as teams torched this unit for 251.8 ypg and also tossed 21 touchdowns against Arkansas. The defense however, was one of the top teams in the country in forcing turnovers, racking up 34 takeaways on the year. Pressuring the quarterback was also another solid area for this team, with 26 sacks. The Razorbacks also stepped up their effort when it mattered most defensively, as the team held opponents to just 36 percent on third downs and allowed just 17 touchdowns in 39 red zone chances for the opposition. Jerry Franklin led the way for Arkansas on the season with 84 tackles, while Adrian Davis and Jake Bequette both collected 5.5 sacks apiece.
The Pirates were also a dangerous team with the football, but they relied more on their rushing attack, as the team rumbled for 149.6 ypg on 4.1 yards per attempt. 23 of the team's 37 touchdowns came on the ground and those scores helped ECU average a respectable 27.8 ppg. Dominique Lindsay was the main source of production out of the backfield, as the tailback rumbled for 1,029 yards and five scores on 5.0 yards per tote. The passing attack has not been as successful as the ground game, mainly because quarterback Pat Pinkney was slightly inconsistent on the year. Pinkney completed 59.5 percent of his throws on the season, for 2,738 yards and 14 scores against 10 interceptions. Dwayne Harris was clearly the top option for ECU, as the wideout led the team with 79 receptions, 914 yards and six touchdowns. Darryl Freeney was also a solid option for Pinkney and finished the regular season with 42 catches for 624 yards and three scores.
Overall the play by the defensive unit for East Carolina was solid, as the team held the opposition to just 22.1 ppg. The Pirates did a solid job against the run, limiting teams to just 123.3 ypg on 3.7 yards per attempt. However, the secondary showed some chinks in the armor throughout the season and was torched for 262.3 ypg through the air, and also surrendered 23 passing touchdowns. What helped this defense on the season was its ability to make big plays on a consistent basis. East Carolina was one of the top teams in the nation at forcing turnovers, and comes into this game with 33 takeaways. The Pirates also put adequate pressure on opposing quarterbacks, racking up 28 sacks on the year. C.J. Wilson led the way with 5.5 sacks on the year, while Scott Robinson added five sacks. Nick Johnson led the team with 94 tackles on the season, while Van Eskridge racked up 93 stops and a team-best six interceptions.
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Horse Betting
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
Chiefs' Treen Green out for Sunday's game
How long Trent Green will remain sidelined is unknown. Coach Herm Edwards said Monday he will miss a second straight start Sunday when the Chiefs host the San Francisco 49ers.
A two-time Pro Bowler, Green was going into a feet-first hook slide when he was knocked unconscious by a thunderous, head-snapping hit from Cincinnati's Robert Geathers.
Oddsmakers at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com currently have the Chiefs listed as 7-point favorites versus the 49ers.
The 49ers got beat by Philadelphia 38-24 as a 6.5-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42.5).
Alex Smith completed 27-of-46 passes for 293 yards with a touchdown. Michael Robinson rushed for 29 yards and a pair of touchdowns on five carries.
The Chiefs lost 9-6 to Denver last week as an 11-point underdog. The combined score was well UNDER the posted over/under total (38).
Larry Johnson rushed for 126 yards on 27 carries. Damon Huard completed 17-of-23 passes for 133 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions.
To visit this online sports book got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting needs.