NHL: Five burning Northwest Division questions
Hockey Betting Lines
09/07/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Vancouver Canucks plowed through the Northwest Division with a 15-7-2 mark en route to the third best record in the Western Conference last season. However, their regular season success did not translate to the playoffs, as they fell in the conference semifinals for the second time in the last three years.
Putting the puck in the net was the least of the Canucks' worries, as the team finished with a second-place finish to the Washington Capitals in goals scored. The problem was a defense that allowed three goals or more in 15 of the final 21 regular season games.
Since Vancouver did not employ a shutdown defenseman after Willie Mitchell was lost in mid-January, the likes of Shane O'Brien and Andrew Alberts, and even Kevin Bieksa, averaged just as much ice time as the trio of Christian Ehrhoff, Alex Edler and Sami Salo.
The main question coming into the new season is how much the new additions on defense - Dam Hamhuis (Nashville) and Keith Ballard (Florida) - will help solidify the unit, especially in the playoffs?
Hamhuis (arguably the top free agent defensive defensemen) and Ballard, (third in the league in blocked shots), will play important roles with Vancouver, especially on the penalty kill - an area of weakness all season long, as well as in the playoffs when the Canucks allowed 17 power-play goals on only 54 chances.
With the pressure of an Olympic year on home ice off of goaltender Roberto Luongo, look for the gold medalist netminder to regain his past form and lead Vancouver into the Western Conference finals for the first time since 1994.
CAN COLORADO'S CRAIG ANDERSON REPEAT LAST YEAR'S SUCCESS?
Most prognosticators predicted the Avalanche would finish last in the Northwest Division last season after compiling just 69 points the year before. That was not to be the case, as Colorado stunned the experts with 95 points and a spot in the postseason.
Leading the charge was Craig Anderson, who came into 2009-10 with a grand total of 88 career starts in six career NHL seasons. Tomas Vokoun's former backup in Florida set the city of Denver on fire in his first two games, with wins over San Jose and Vancouver on his way to a 10-2-2 October and an outstanding .939 save percentage.
However, his post-Olympic numbers were pedestrian, with Anderson winning only seven times in 18 games with a 3.28 goals-against average and an .895 save percentage. Some folks pointed to his sizeable workload (71 total starts) as the reason for the late-season demise but how would that account for his tremendous postseason play against San Jose, a series in which he literally stood on his head?
Look for backup Peter Budaj to ease Anderson's load this season, especially since the organization acted quickly in re-signing the five-year veteran well before the July 1 free agency deadline. To that end, Anderson should continue his outstanding play leading the Avalanche to the playoffs for a second straight season.
WILL THE RETURN OF JOKINEN AND TANGUAY PAY DIVIDENDS?
The Flames were rolling along at the midway point of last year with a 24-12-5 mark, but a second-half slide (16-20-5) prevented the club from reaching the postseason for the first time since 2003.
Scoring was a huge problem as the club ranked last in the league with 204 goals. Only two players tallied more than 15, with Jarome Iginla potting 32 and Rene Bourque netting 27 - a far cry from 2008-09 when five forwards hit for 16 or more.
Olli Jokinen never meshed on the top line with Iginla, so last year's trade with the Rangers made sense. Nevertheless, Jokinen was brought back this off- season along with another former Flame, Alex Tanguay - a winger that has seen his goal totals drop each season since the lockout.
Will both forwards help Calgary move up the ladder in goals scored when they failed the first time around? The final answer will not come until the season starts but the prognosis is not a positive one.
CAN MINNESOTA ENJOY A FAST START IN 2010-11?
In college football, it usually takes a full season for a team to adjust to a new coach and his system. If one applies that logic to the NHL, look for the Wild to have a much-improved campaign.
Minnesota got out of the gate slowly last year with a 3-10 record in its first 13 games. In fact, the Wild did not win a game by more than one goal until its 17th contest.
What should be taken from last season was a solid 35-26-8 mark over the final 69 games. More importantly, the team played exceptionally well inside its own division, tying Vancouver with a 15-7-2 record in those contests.
The Wild was also tough to beat at home. Only seven of the other 29 squads won more games in their own building last year, and as luck would have it, eight of this season's first 10 games (after the two matchups with Carolina in Finland) will be played at the Xcel Energy Center.
WILL THE KIDS BE ALRIGHT?
Not much is expected from Edmonton this season except the steady progression of a pair of teenagers and the reigning Canadian Junior player of the year.
Taylor Hall, the 2010 first overall draft choice, and Magnus Paajarvi are the teens, while Jordan Eberle is the elder statesman at 20 years of age.
Only Calgary and Florida scored fewer goals last season than Edmonton, so look for the three youngsters to get ample opportunities to shine. If they can inject some quickness and passion into the team, the Oilers have a chance to climb out of the NHL cellar, especially with Ales Hemsky healthy for the first time since last November.
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New England Patriots and quarterback Tom Brady are reportedly on the verge of a three-year contract extension worth close to $58 million. The Boston Herald reports the deal is on the table for Brady,
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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